Long-Term vs. Short-Term Rental in the West Valley: Running the Actual Numbers

Both Work — The Question Is Which Fits You

I operate short-term rentals in Surprise through NVS Housing. I've also had long-term tenants. These are genuinely different businesses, and which makes more sense depends as much on your operational tolerance as the numbers. Let me lay out the comparison honestly.

The Revenue Comparison

For a well-positioned 4-bedroom home in Surprise:

Long-term rental:

• Monthly rent: $2,000-$2,400 (current Surprise market for 4BR)
• Annual gross: $24,000-$28,800
• Vacancy (5-8%): -$1,200-$2,000
• Repairs and maintenance: -$2,000-$3,500
• Property management if outsourced (8-10%): -$1,900-$2,400
• Annual net: ~$18,000-$23,000

Short-term rental (well-run, good location):

• Annual gross: $42,000-$58,000 (with spring training premium)
• Platform fees (~3%): -$1,200-$1,700
• Management/co-hosting if outsourced (20-25%): -$8,000-$14,500
• Utilities, supplies, linens, maintenance: -$5,000-$8,000
• Annual net: ~$22,000-$35,000

The STR ceiling is higher. But so is the work and the variance.

The Work Comparison

Long-term rental: find a tenant, sign a lease, collect rent monthly, handle maintenance calls. If you self-manage: 5-10 hours per month typically.

Short-term rental: calendar management, pricing updates, guest communication, coordinating turnovers, restocking supplies. Even with co-hosting, you're involved in decisions regularly. Figure 20-40+ hours per month on a single well-run STR.

When I'd Recommend Each

Choose long-term rental if: you want passive income, you're uncomfortable with variable monthly cash flow, you don't want operational involvement, or your property isn't in a location that commands STR premium.

Choose short-term rental if: you have a property near Surprise Stadium or other demand drivers, you're comfortable with active management or will hire good co-hosting, and you want to maximize annual revenue rather than simplify your life.

Both are legitimate strategies. Know which one you're signing up for before you buy.